Market overview

• US initial jobless claims 227,000, forecast 216,000, previous 215,000

• Continuing US Unemployment Claims 1,494,000, 1,475,000 forecast, 1,476,000 previous

• US jobless claims over 4 weeks average 231.25K, previous 230.50K

• U.S. February Real Earnings (Monthly) -0.5%, previous -0.5%

• February US Core CPI 284.18 286.43 previous

• US February CPI (Yearly) 7.9%, forecast 7.9%, previous 7.5%

• US Feb Core CPI (YoY) 6.4%, 5.9% forecast, 6.0% previous

• US Feb Core CPI (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous

• US February CPI (monthly) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous

• US Feb Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.6% prior

Forward-looking economic data (GMT)

• No significant data forthcoming

Future Outlook – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No significant event

Currency summaries

EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank announced that it would phase out its stimulus measures in the third quarter. The ECB’s statement, which left the door open for an interest rate hike before the end of 2022, with soaring inflation outweighing concerns about the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine , briefly pushed the euro higher, before market sentiment turned negative. The euro fell 0.83% to $1.0985, after jumping 1.6% on Wednesday, its best day in nearly six years. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1002 (38.2% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.1088 (50% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0958 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0896. (23.6% fiber).

GBP/USD: The British pound fell against the US dollar on Thursday as searing US inflation figures raised bets for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.9% on an annual basis in February, the biggest increase in 40 years and well above the target of 2.0 % from the U.S. central bank, pushing the dollar up 0.5% as it shored up expectations of a rate hike in March. Expectations that the Fed will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by at least 25 basis points on March 16 stand at 95.9%, according to CME’s FedWatch. 38.2% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3079 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000 (psychological level).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart on Thursday, adding to its gains from the previous day, as investors bet that commodity-producing economies will pick up the slack left by disruptions in Russian exports. The only other G10 currencies to gain ground on Thursday were the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Canada, Australia and New Zealand are major commodity producers. The loonie rose 0.3% to 1.2760 per greenback, or 78.37 US cents, after trading in a range of 1.2751 to 1.2841. On Tuesday, the currency touched its lowest intraday level in 2.5 months at 1.2901. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2807 (38.2% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.2876 (23.6% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2753 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2694 (61.8% fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday after inflation data from the United States confirmed a rapid rise in prices, cementing expectations of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week. Consumer prices in the United States jumped in February, forcing Americans to dig deeper to pay rent, food and gas, and inflation is set to accelerate even more as the war of Russia against Ukraine drives up the prices of crude oil and other raw materials. The Federal Reserve is expected to start raising interest rates next Wednesday. With inflation nearly four times higher than the US central bank’s 2% target. A strong resistance can be seen at 116.40 (23.6% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 117.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 115.91 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 115.82(5DMA).

Summary of actions

European stocks closed lower on Thursday after the European Central Bank announced plans to end bond purchases in the third quarter as soaring inflation outweighed risks to economic growth from the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed down 1.27%, Germany’s Dax ended down 2.93%, France’s CAC ended the day down 2.82%.

Wall Street closes lower Wall Street resumed its slide on Thursday, ending in the red as inflation hit a four-decade high, bolstering expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise key interest rates at the end of next week’s monetary policy meeting.

The Dow Jones closed 0.34%, the S&P 500 closed 0.43%, the Nasdaq stabilized 0.95%.

Summary of treasury bills

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Thursday after US inflation data confirmed a rapid rise in prices, cementing expectations of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week, while the European Central Bank has taken a hawkish turn.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bills rose 4.9 basis points to 1.997% after hitting 2.013%, its highest level since Feb. 25. The 10-year yield is on track to climb for a fourth consecutive day, its longest winning streak. in a month.

Summary of raw materials

Gold stabilized near the $2,000 an ounce level on Thursday after swinging wildly over the past two sessions as its safe-haven appeal was buoyed by a lack of progress in talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,996.30 an ounce at 1:53 p.m. ET (6:53 p.m. GMT), after falling 3% on Wednesday. US gold futures rose 0.6% to $2,000.40.

Oil prices fell around 2% on Thursday after a volatile session, a day after their biggest daily decline in two years, as Russia pledged to meet its contractual obligations and some traders said the fears of supply disruption were exaggerated.

Brent crude futures fell $1.81, or 1.6%, to settle at $109.33 a barrel after gaining as much as 6.5% earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.68, or 2.5%, to settle at $106.02 a barrel, giving up more than 5.7% of intraday gains.