Mortgage and Refinance Rates, September 1 | Rates are rising today

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Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates rose slightly yesterday. But even that boost was enough to send them to their highest level since mid-June. And they’re now very close to that mid-June level, which was a 14-year high.

So far this morning, markets are signaling that mortgage rates may rise today. Unless that changes as the day progresses, expect 6%+ tonight.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage rate APR* To change
30-year fixed conventional 6.006% 6.037% +0.03%
15-year fixed conventional 5.431% 5.493% +0.06%
20-year fixed conventional 6.047% 6.103% +0.08%
10-year fixed conventional 5.25% 5.347% -0.01%
30-year fixed FHA 5.75% 6.515% +0.07%
15-year fixed FHA 5.67% 6.199% +0.1%
30-year fixed PV 5.512% 5.736% +0.06%
15-year fixed VA 5.604% 5.964% +0.08%
Pricing is provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Don’t lock in on a day when mortgage rates look set to drop. My recommendations (below) are intended to provide longer-term suggestions on the general direction of these rates. Thus, they do not change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

After a relatively mild month of July, mortgage rates were unable to recover in August. I hope they could relax a bit in September. But, if they fall at all, I doubt they fall far or long.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • TO BLOCK if closing seven days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 15 days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 30 days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 45 days
  • TO BLOCK if closing 60 days

>Related: 7 tips for getting the best refinance rate

Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here is an overview of the situation this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:

  • The yield on 10-year treasury bills climbed to 3.24% from 3.12%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular treasury yields
  • Main stock indices were lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and raises yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are weaker. But it’s an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices fell to $87.92 from $90.05 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a major role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
  • Gold prices fell to $1,708 from $1,725 ​​an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It’s generally better for rates when gold goes up and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates down
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — fell from 53 out of 100 to 49. (Good for mortgage rates.) “greedy” investors cause bond prices to fall (and interest rates to rise) when they leave the bond market and turn to equities, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A movement of less than $20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a change of 1% or less. We therefore only consider significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Market and rate warnings

Prior to the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We are still making daily calls. And are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its former high levels until things stabilize.

So use the markets only as an indication. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied upon. But, with this caveat, today, mortgage rates are expected to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Lily ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit scores, large down payments, and very sound finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements – although they all generally follow the larger trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rates unchanged
  5. Refinance rates are generally close to purchase rates.

There’s a lot going on right now. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinance rates going up or down?

With only bad news yesterday, August was officially a terrible month for average mortgage rates. According to Mortgage News Daily records, 30-year fixed rate mortgages closed at 5.99% last night.

And that’s within reach of the 14-year high set in June. Things are dark.

But could they improve? Well yes. It’s possible. But it all depends on the economic data coming in September.

Don’t expect miracles if September turns out to be better for mortgage rates than August. I think modest falls are more likely than heavy ones. And I would be amazed if they return to late July levels within the next 30 days. Indeed, there remains a reasonable possibility that this month will be as bad as the last.

Report on the jobs of tomorrow

September’s first bestselling economic report arrives tomorrow. This is the official monthly report on the employment situation for the month of August.

Economists polled by MarketWatch expect 318,000 new jobs (“non-farm payrolls”), an exceptionally low unemployment rate of 3.5% and an increase in the average hourly wage of 0.4%, against 0 .5% in July.

Overall, better than expected economic news is pushing mortgage rates higher. And worse than expected drives them lower. This is a good rule of thumb, but there are exceptions.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more information.

For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new weekly all-time low was set 16 times that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.

Rates then plummeted, moving little for the next eight or nine months. But they started to increase noticeably in September. Unfortunately, they’ve mostly been touring since the start of 2022, though they’ve been kinder since May.

Freddie’s September 1st report places that same weekly average for conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 5.66% (with 0.8 fees and points), at the top compared to 5.55% the previous week. Freddie captures most of the data for its weekly Thursday reports the previous Monday. And much of that day’s sharp rise will not have been reflected in its latest numbers.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fee and points”) at close which earn you a lower rate. If you don’t, your rate will be closer to what we and others quote.

Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .

And here are their current rate forecasts for the last two quarters of 2022 (Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first two quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23).

The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s predictions appeared on August 22 and the MBA’s on August 23. Freddie’s came out around July 21. But it now only publishes quarterly forecasts. So, expect his numbers to look outdated soon.

Forecaster Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2/23
Fannie Mae 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5%
Freddie Mac 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2%
MBA 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the current crop of predictions could be even more speculative than usual. And their past accuracy record hasn’t been very impressive. Personally, I think they are wildly optimistic.

Find your lowest rate today

You should do a lot of comparison shopping no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states:

“Shopping around for your mortgage can save you real money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the term of your loan.

Mortgage Rate Methodology

Mortgage reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of daily rates and how they change over time.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute advertising for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent company or affiliates.

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